Andrea Carlomaria Caflisch

PhD Candidate in Political Science

University College London

I am a PhD candidate in Political Science at University College London, where I work at the intersection of conflict, forced displacement, and political economy. I research how communities rebuild social and economic life after war, with particular attention to the role of aid, institutions, and local security actors.

My dissertation examines the determinants of return from forced displacement in South Sudan, with a focus on local security provision. I am also co-leading projects studying post-conflict economic recovery and social cohesion in Iraq, the effects of deportation on migrants' reintegration in Haiti, and land conflict and dispute resolution in Côte d'Ivoire. Methodologically, I draw on original survey data, field experiments, quasi-experimental methods, and mixed methods.

My PhD research is supported by a Clara Collet scholarship from UCL. I have recently been awarded a Cedric Smith prize from the Conflict Research Society, and have secured grants from J-PAL's Displaced Livelihoods Initiative, IPA's Peace and Recovery Initiative, and CEPR's Reducing Conflict and Improving Performance in the Economy, as well as working on projects funded by the World Bank and by the International Organization for Migration.

Alongside my academic work, I have spent several years as a researcher and programme coordinator with the International Organization for Migration, managing impact evaluations, displacement tracking operations, and humanitarian analysis in South Sudan, Ethiopia, Haiti, and Iraq.

Research

Working Papers

Andrea Caflisch

Existing accounts of return after forced displacement emphasize current security conditions. Yet present violence is a poor predictor of returnees' future prospects. This article investigates the relationship between the institutions responsible for security provision and return. I argue that prospective returnees rely on the responsiveness and military capacity of local security providers as signals of future stability. In ethnic conflicts, this relationship is moderated by the geographical distribution of ethnic groups and by control over the central state. I test this theory using granular administrative and survey data from South Sudan. I show that security provision by community-based militias — in-group responsive actors with high military capacity — is associated with more permanent return. Difference-in-differences estimates demonstrate that this effect is concentrated in ethnic borderlands inhabited by the state-controlling group. I show that this pattern is driven by state repression of minority militias and has implications for economic recovery and security.

with Alexandra Hartman and Aletheia Donald

The resolution of conflicting claims over property rights is a central function of both state and informal institutions. How does land registration in a public cadastre shape claim-making during disputes? We use a randomized controlled trial of a large-scale land registration and certification programme implemented by the government of Côte d'Ivoire to study how the legibility of property rights — the availability of publicly recognized land certificates — affects conflict resolution behaviour. We argue that as land registration rates increase at the community level, the value of registration shifts from private — providing a bargaining advantage to certificate holders — to public — reducing conflict over property rights. Empirically, we find that local variation in land registration shapes the demand for dispute resolution services. In areas targeted by the programme we find a decrease in claim-making with local institutions and reduced demand for dispute resolution services, which we measure using a conjoint experiment to reveal individual preferences and control for competing mechanisms. We also find that public provision of land registration has distributional outcomes. Claim-making against indigenous individuals afforded protected status by Ivorian law decreases at a higher rate, even though migrant landholders benefited the most in terms of perceived tenure security.

with Daniel Masterson, Stephen O'Connell, and Julia Smith-Omomo

How does the uneven distribution of economic recovery reshape social relationships? While new economic opportunities can bind communities together, inequality may generate resentment among those left behind. We study a capital grant program in post-conflict Iraq to understand the direct and indirect effects of selective recovery by measuring outcomes for beneficiaries and their social and professional network ties across seven dimensions of social attitudes including trust, grievances, and competition. Beneficiaries experience large, growing economic gains alongside improved trust and reduced grievances toward their community. Early increases in trade, debt, and transfers between beneficiaries and their professional ties — consistent with local sharing norms — fade by twelve months. We then find that network ties report no changes in attitudes toward their community, but both social and professional ties show persistent increases in perceived unfairness directed specifically at their proximate beneficiary tie at both six and twelve months. These findings reveal countervailing effects on social attitudes within the community, and that the nature of one's exposure to recovery programming shapes whether it strengthens or strains social ties.

with Alexandra Hartman, Margaret Peters, and Yang-Yang Zhou

Abstract coming soon.

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Franklinos, L., Parrish, R., Burns, R., Caflisch, A. et al. UCL Open: Environment, 2021

Link

Migration is one of the defining issues of the 21st century. Better data is required to improve understanding about how and why people are moving, target interventions and support evidence-based migration policy. Big data, defined as large, complex data from diverse sources, is regularly proposed as a solution to help address current gaps in knowledge. The authors participated in a workshop held in London, UK, in July 2019, that brought together experts from the United Nations (UN), humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs), policy and academia to develop a better understanding of how big data could be used for migration research and policy. We identified six key areas regarding the application of big data in migration research and policy: accessing and utilising data; integrating data sources and knowledge; understanding environmental drivers of migration; improving healthcare access for migrant populations; ethical and security concerns around the use of big data; and addressing political narratives. We advocate the need for careful consideration of the challenges faced by the use of big data, as well as increased cross-disciplinary collaborations to advance the use of big data in migration research whilst safeguarding vulnerable migrant communities.

Wiens, K. E., Mawien, P. N., Rumunu, J., Caflisch, A. et al. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 27(6), 2021

Link

Relatively few coronavirus disease cases and deaths have been reported from sub-Saharan Africa, although the extent of its spread remains unclear. During August 10–September 11, 2020, we recruited 2,214 participants for a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We found 22.3% of participants had severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor binding domain IgG titers above prepandemic levels. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.3% (95% credible interval 31.8%–46.5%) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. At this rate, for each PCR–confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported by the Ministry of Health, 103 (95% credible interval 86–126) infections would have been unreported, meaning SARS-CoV-2 has likely spread extensively within Juba. We also found differences in background reactivity in Juba compared with Boston, Massachusetts, USA, where the immunoassay was validated. Our findings underscore the need to validate serologic tests in sub-Saharan Africa populations.

Policy Reports

Humanitarian

Study on the reintegration of deported migrants in Haiti: insights from the first round of panel surveys Caflisch, A., Hartman, A., Lamorena, Z., Peters, M., Zhou, T., Zhou, Y. International Organization for Migration, Haiti, 2025

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South Sudan Urban and IDP Site Multi-Sector Needs and Vulnerabilities Survey International Organization for Migration Report Series, 2020–2021

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South Sudan Trends in Cross-border Return Flows and Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions International Organization for Migration International Organization for Migration, 2020

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Displacement Trends and Drivers in the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area: Evidence from the Early Warning System International Organization for Migration International Organization for Migration, Haiti, 2022

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Economic Recovery

From Displacement to Resilience: Aid, Economic Recovery, and Social Cohesion in Post-War Iraq — Part I: Baseline Findings Caflisch, A., Fidakar, M., Masterson, D., O'Connell, S. D., Roze, M., Smith-Omomo, J. L. International Organization for Migration, Baghdad, 2025

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Predictors of Business Success among Enterprise Development Fund Recipients in Iraq Martin, D. and Caflisch, A. International Organization for Migration, Baghdad, 2025

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The Enterprise Development Fund: Business Trajectories After One Year Martin, D. and Caflisch, A. International Organization for Migration, Baghdad, 2024

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Other

Sending out an SMS: The impact of automatically enrolling consumers into overdraft alerts Caflisch, A., Grubb, M. D., Kelly, D., Nieboer, J., and Osborne, M. FCA Occasional Paper No. 36, 2018

Link

Teaching

Post-Graduate Teaching Assistant · Department of Political Science, University College London (since 2022)

Spread of Conflict in International Relations 2nd / 3rd Year Undergraduate · UCL Department of Political Science Seminar leader; evaluation of assessments

Quantitative Data Analysis 2nd Year Undergraduate · UCL Department of Political Science Seminar leader; evaluation of assessments

Qualitative Field Methods Graduate · UCL Department of Political Science Seminar leader; guest lecture; evaluation of assessments